This study from the CGES provides you with an examination of the effect of geopolitics on oil production since 2000. With in-depth analysis of how political actions have reduced both potential and actual oil production globally you'll understand the implications for the world oil market

The study focuses on and discusses each country individually assessing the specific problems they face.

Topics discussed include:

• Iraq: UN sanctions and the US-led invasion
• Iran: US sanctions and Iran’s politically inspired contract terms
• Nigeria: conflict within the Niger Delta
• Kuwait: political opposition to opening the country’s upstream oil industry to foreign investment
• Venezuela: the politicisation of the country’s oil industry including re-nationalisation
• Russia: political interference has reduced the rate of growth
• Mexico: continuing opposition to the opening of the upstream oil industry to foreign investment has undermined output and left Pemex struggling (unsuccessfully) to control the decline of the Cantarell field
• Indonesia: where a protracted battle between the state oil company and a major foreign investor over the operatorship of the country’s only major new oilfield has delayed development work

Why you should buy this study?

“Geopolitics is dominating the oil price” Sheikh Yamani warned of the dangers facing the oil industry in 2006. “We have never seen such a situation like this, where politics is the main player”

In 2008, geopolitics was still highlighted as a major contributor to record high oil prices reached. However, while geopolitics has regularly been blamed for high oil prices, its impact on actual oil production is often ignored.

The study provides a range for the volume of oil that was missing from the supply side of the oil balance in 1Q08. This report identifies eight key countries as victims of political disruptions to oil supplies or planned capacity expansions. Collectively, these eight countries produced between 3.2 mbpd and a staggering 10.4 mbpd less oil than planned – enough oil to radically alter the supply/demand balance had it been available.

By assessing the impact of politics on 2008 levels of oil production, we can better understand the potential future effects at a time when global oil production is expected to become concentrated in fewer and fewer countries almost all of which are those whose current levels of oil production have been affected by geopolitics.

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