Canada Oil Sands

Canada's Oil Sands

Author: Vincent Lauerman & Julian Lee
Published: 10 November 2009

Prior to the global recession, the future of Canada’s oil sands seemed extremely bright due to impressive technological advances both in surface mining and in situ recovery techniques, higher oil prices and concerns about energy security by major oil consumers such as the USA. However, the collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2008 and growing environmental pressure in the USA has cast a shadow over the oil sands.

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A recent article in the FT titled 'Suppliers of oil sands fuel shunned' tells how:

"Two big US companies have decided to avoid suppliers that source fuel from Canada’s oil sands to curb their carbon footprints."  By Sheila McNulty, FT.com, 10th Feb 2010

Another article in PIW titled 'Can Alberta Avoid New Oil Sands Frenzy?' recognises the affect of environmental issues:

"...Future oil sands development is complicated by other issues, of which the environment is clearly the most  serious. BP and Royal Dutch Shell are already under shareholder pressure not to invest more in the oil sands because of environmental concerns..." PIW, 15th February 2010

Canada's Oil Sands provides you with an updated view of the prospects for the future development of Canada’s oil sands resource, based on two specially-developed scenarios for economic, environmental and political  developments in the aftermath of the global recession.

Scenarios:

Love Thy Neighbour - a moderately optimistic scenario, it assumes the major countries cooperate and adopt the necessary fiscal and monetary policies to make the current recession relatively short and ensure economic growth is strong and lasting thereafter. In this scenario, a new spirit of global cooperation helps to bolster global environmentalism.

Beggar Thy Neighbour - a pessimistic scenario, it assumes the global recession is longer and deeper, due to a second dip in 2010, and sustainable growth is substantially slower than in the recent past. A breakdown in major power cooperation prolongs the global recession and leads an authoritarian bloc led by China and Russia to challenge the Western countries for dominance. The global environmental movement is obstructed in this scenario.

The ramifications of these two global scenarios differ greatly for world energy and oil markets and, in particular, for the development of Canada’s oil sands.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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