The Centre for Global Energy Studies

Annual Oil Market Forecast and Review 2010

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Author: Julian Lee
Published: 23 February 2010

2009 saw a dramatic recovery in oil prices, despite the deepest global recession since the Great Depression. By the end of the year, crude oil was trading at close to $80/bbl, almost twice the price as at the start of the year and significantly higher than OPEC had dared to hope. Find out the drivers behind the remarkable rise in oil price, and the outlook for 2010 with the CGES’ Annual Oil Market Forecast and Review 2010.

*Sample excerpt from the Annual Review 2010

The Annual Oil Market Forecast and Review 2010 provides you with a definitive source for the Centre’s views on the events in the global oil industry over the past year, such as OPEC output cuts and the surge in demand in China, and CGES’ expert forecasts for 2010. This valuable reference tool offers comprehensive, un-biased, expert analysis and includes more than 200 detailed graphs and tables.

The Review
Drawing on the Centre’s extensive data resources and analytical skills, the Review section assesses the factors that led to the extraordinary recovery in oil prices, in the face of a second successive year of falling global oil demand. This includes detailed analysis of the following:

• Oil prices
• Oil demand
• Non-OPEC supply
• OPEC production
• Oil inventories
• Oil trade
• Refining
• Retail prices and taxes

The Forecasts
Will the feared ‘double-dip’ recession, or the hoped-for sustained economic recovery dominate 2010? Can non-OPEC producers meet output expectations? Will OPEC act swiftly in response to changes in the need for its oil? The Forecast section pulls together the unrivalled expertise of the Centre’s analysts, to provide a thorough examination of these main factors that will affect the oil market in 2010.

The Scenarios
The outlook for 2010 is explored further through three scenarios that link oil supply, demand and stock changes to movements in oil prices. The reference case scenario incorporates the CGES’ view of likely developments in 2010, while the ‘high price’ and ‘low price’ scenarios examine the impact of variations from these baseline assumptions.